Editors' Summary

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چکیده

THE PROBLEMS OF INFLATION and recession continued to occupy the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity in its seventeenth conference, held in Washington on September 11-12, 1975. One or another aspect of these problems is investigated in each of the four articles and two reportsi n this issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. The stock-market decline of 1973-74 imposed more than $500 billion of paper losses on stockholders. In the first article of this issue, Barry Bosworth investigates what contribution such a decline in the stock market might have made to the severity of the 1973-74 recession. He points out that the correlation between stock-market movements and business fluctuations does not reveal the direction of causation. Nor does it even establish that causality exists between stock prices and economic activity since it could reflect their common response to some other set of basic forces. Even the fact that the stock market tends to lead the economy at cyclical turning points could in principle mean merely that investors forecast profits with some degree of accuracy. Bosworth focuses on the ways in which the stock market might have direct effects on consumer and investment demands. Using U.S. time-series data for the period since the Korean War, Bosworth estimates that a dollar loss in household wealth in the form of common stock lowers aggregate consumer demand by 3 to 5 cents. No alternative variables appear to be capable of replacing the stock market as an independent explanatory element in tracking total consumption. While the estimated effect may seem

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